Which fractile set to choose, is entirely up to you. Assume e.g., that you choose the 10%-, 50% and 90%-fractiles as the low, medium and high estimates respectively. For a specific “data node”, say “MyNode” you can then read its actual fractile values. E.g.,:
• Lo.fract. = 0.8
• Md.fract. = 1.01
• Hi.fract. = 1.29
This means that (based on the simulation results) that the probability that the value of “MyNode” is below 0.8, 1.01 and 1.29 is 10%, 50% and 90% respectively.
The interval between the Lo.fract. value and the Hi.fract. value is often referred to as an “interval estimate” of the “data node”. With the fractile set used above, this interval estimate has a probability of (90% - 10%) = 80% of containing the value of “MyNode”. If you want a higher probability, you must choose another fractile set. In particular, if you want an interval estimate with say a 90% chance of containing the value of “MyNode”, you can change the fractile set so that Lo.fract and Hi.fract. are respectively the 5%- and the 95%-fractiles.
